Stretch five

Farah Palmer Cup: Round 5; Mitre 10 Cup: Round 4

Oct 08, 2020

Welcome to this week’s edition of The Tip-On!

If you’d like to get an idea of the kind of ball skills second-generation All Black second row Isaac Ross will bring to the Tasman Mako for the remainder of this year’s Mitre 10 Cup, you can watch some of his Top League highlights — including a crossfield kick and a slotted touchline conversion — here.

All in-game data per ESPNScrum unless otherwise stated.

Muscling up

“There will definitely be changes. We’ve got different people in this group, we’ve got a different setup, there’s stuff that we know works, and there’s stuff that we know that we’ve got to keep growing. Will it be different? Well, you can tell me. But it certainly feels different.”

Ever since his rather contentious appointment as the team’s head coach for 2020 and beyond, Ian Foster has been keen to stress that he understands the need for the All Blacks to evolve in order to sustain the unparalleled success they’ve achieved over the last decade.

As a result of the state of 2020, after almost 10 months in the job we still don’t have any actual test rugby to assess him on — but, as he’s waited patiently to assemble his new squad, he’s had plenty of opportunities to lay out his agenda for the Kiwi public. Just a few days out from the Bledisloe Cup opener, it’s worth taking stock of what he and his assistants have had to say: what can we expect from this year’s All Blacks?

After not being given any “any space to breathe” by England in last year’s fateful World Cup semi-final, it’s fair to say that Foster and his coaching group have focused on one word in discussions with media: physicality.

The chart below — which plots the gainline success rate of all Tier 1 sides (and Japan) in Tier 1 fixtures at last year’s tournament against their average number of metres gained per carry — shows how New Zealand struggled to assert themselves in the collisions against England and South Africa in particular:

It was the same story on the other side of the ball: while the All Blacks were a good defensive team, they were not a physically dominant one.

In that context, it’s unsurprising that it has been an issue at the front of Foster’s mind since his appointment. In the space of 7 days in February, the topic came up in media interviews multiple times — first in a piece with Marc Hinton of Stuff:

"Generally we score bucketloads of tries, beat more people, make more linebreaks and all that stuff. Teams spend a lot of time figuring out how to shut that down and at times they're successful. What we've got to add to that is how good are our Plan Bs and Cs when we can't play that style we really want to and how tough is the physical side of our game when we need to take teams on that want to play us that way. We've got to make sure we define what being physical means and how it fits with our game-plan. Some games over the last two years where teams beat us, they've hit us in that area. We've said we're going to outskill you, but you've got to respect opponents have done a lot of work on us and if we don't get physical, then it's a long day in the office."

It was then a recurring theme of his appearance on The Breakdown a couple of days later, with the coach stating that “[w]e’ve got to figure out how to play teams physically when they play us physically”. (He later reiterated that “[l]earning how to deal with teams physically” is a key focus for the team in 2020.)

In another piece with Hinton soon after, it came up again:

"We've got to keep an attacking mindset and a skilful process. But we've got to up the ante a bit on when the game requires more of a physical component, and get that balance back in how we play.

When their first squad was announced at the beginning of September, assistant John Plumtree got in on the act too: the former Hurricanes leader — after name-checking England and South Africa — stated that the team “[needs] guys who can create momentum through brutality, and not just through...having to have space for us to get momentum”.

That area of the game was also a focus of a piece in the NZ Herald on the new forwards coach this week, with Liam Napier predicting that Plumtree will “bring back the mongrel” to the All Blacks pack. But one comment made by Foster’s new assistant for that piece was particularly telling as we attempt to understand how the coaching team will actually go about trying to change this part of their game:

"All our franchises they're very physical, and we know the All Black jersey demands that so for me to go and tell the players we need to be more physical they'd laugh at me. It's around our game skills that enable us to dominate.”

These sorts of rugby discussions often end up relying on the language of machismo and ‘mentality’, but Plumtree’s approach is reassuringly measured: winning collisions and controlling the gainline isn’t a matter of motivation, but of physically conditioned athletes executing technical skills to a high level.

On Sunday, you should therefore expect to see the likes of Codie Taylor and Ardie Savea use their “catch and pass” and “great feet” more frequently than last year in order to generate quick ball in tight spaces; the 2019 All Blacks’ attacking shape moved away from the sort of hard carries and tip-on passes off 9 that were a key component of their success in the early part of the last World Cup cycle.

Looking out towards 2023 and the next World Cup, however, it will be the first part of that equation — the physically conditioned athletes — in which the coaching group will see the most scope for improvement. With Tupou Vaa’i and Hoskins Sotutu both tipped to make this weekend’s matchday squad and the likes of Asafo Aumua and Cullen Grace not far behind them, the complexion of this All Blacks pack could change very quickly.

Roll out that sort of power, strength and skill up front in concert with Caleb Clarke, Rieko Ioane and Jordie Barrett in a taller, bulkier backline, and Foster will be well on his way to addressing the major shortcoming of the 2019 side.

Possible All Blacks matchday squad for test vs. Australia, Sunday 11th October

Joe Moody
Codie Taylor
Ofa Tuungafasi
Patrick Tuipulotu
Sam Whitelock
Shannon Frizell
Sam Cane (c)
Ardie Savea
Aaron Smith
Beauden Barrett
Caleb Clarke
Anton Lienert-Brown
Rieko Ioane
Sevu Reece
Jordie Barrett
Dane Coles
Karl Tu’inukuafe
Nepo Laulala
Tupou Vaa’i
Hoskins Sotutu
TJ Perenara
Richie Mo’unga
George Bridge

Shaken up

A number of unexpected results in Weeks 4 and 5 of the Farah Palmer Cup have left Waikato and Canterbury as the only unbeaten teams in the tournament with 2 rounds of the regular season to play.

In the North Pool, Counties Manukau — expected to be the strongest team in their group, based on performances in recent years — were overturned by Northland (20-32) and Waikato (28-34) in successive weeks. The Kauri competed in the Championship division last season, but with a 2-0-2 record (and a fit and firing Portia Woodman in tow) are in contention with Auckland for a playoff spot in this year’s revised structure if results fall their way. They should handle Taranaki at home this coming week, before travelling to face the Bay of Plenty Volcanix on the final weekend of the pool stage.

Meanwhile, the Manawatū Cyclones — winless in, and subsequently relegated from, last year’s Premiership — have their fate in their own hands in the South: their 31-28 win away to Wellington (who defeated them 42-26 in last year’s top division) means that they can only be caught by the Pride if they slip up against Hawke’s Bay on Friday 16th October in Napier.

Pulling power

Nielsen Sports published their 2020 ‘50 Most Marketable Athletes’ list a couple of weeks ago, with not a single rugby player in sight — a fact that will be unsurprising to anyone who read Alan Dymock’s excellent piece on the sport’s uncomfortable relationship with “superstar names” for Rugby World last month.

Dymock identified rugby’s conventional focus on the team over the individual as one of the reasons for its current lack of a transcendent worldwide star, and comparing the social media reach of the All Blacks to that of their most marketable player bears this out. The men’s national team’s 1.7m followers on Instagram are almost triple the number of Beauden Barrett’s, who — as Dymock notes — is “no stranger to an ad campaign”: the fly-half currently counts Adidas, Red Bull and Tudor among his sponsors.

Indeed, if any rugby team is to truly break through globally, it will likely be the All Blacks. Sports marketing consultant Tim Crow called them “[a]rguably the biggest brand in rugby” in an interview for the RW piece, and it’s difficult to dispute his assessment: the team’s 7.3m combined followers across Instagram, Facebook and Twitter number nearly twice those of England — the second-ranked Tier 1 men’s team by this metric, with 3.8m in total.

What’s more, another opportunity for NZR to try and expand their reach will soon present itself. One way they have grown interest in their premier team in black in recent years is through advertising campaigns in less traditional rugby markets, and the end of AIG’s primary sponsorship deal after the 2021 season could be the perfect springboard to test the water in another.

Four corners

A regular complaint about the effective integration of schools rugby in New Zealand into the sport’s broader high-performance pipeline is that the establishment of ‘sports academies’ at institutions like St Kentigern College — offering scholarships and “big promises” to prospective students — increasingly concentrates top talent at an ever-smaller number of elite schools.

However, New Zealand Rugby has done a pretty good job in recent years of ensuring they cast a wide net, minimising the chances of them missing out on strong prospects for the professional game simply because their games aren’t broadcast on Sky Sport a few times a year.

For that matter, their age-grade selectors look to have done a good job with the country’s U18 talent this season too. The 50-strong New Zealand Barbarians squad that has been training in Hamilton this week ahead of an intrasquad match tomorrow is drawn from 28 different schools across 12 provincial unions, with no single institution contributing more than 4 players:

Pass of the week

With provincial representative cricketers Will Jordan and Jordie Barrett competing for the All Blacks’ 15 jersey and age-grade international Ruben Love taking his first steps in the NPC with Wellington, New Zealand aren’t short of multi-sport talent in the outside backs at the moment.

Like Jordan and Barrett in their final years of school, Otago BHS playmaker Finn Hurley didn’t make it all the way to this year’s elite end-of-season schoolboy rugby camp — but the Southland U17 batsman was able to crack the Highlanders’ underage selection, and looked to have a lot of fun at fullback last week as they comfortably defeated the Crusaders in Timaru.

As well as showing off his footwork on kick return, the Southland native was injected into the line from deep in phase attack and played an important part in a couple of tries with a pair of nonchalant backdoor offloads to support runners as the Highlanders scythed through the red and black defence.

The first came with his side leading 21-12, and Hurley coming onto the ball at second receiver behind a screen pass. Faced with a Crusaders front-rower opposite him in the defensive line, the 15 scorched his way to the outside before releasing schoolmate Semisi Tupou Taeiloa with a delightfully casual flick of the wrist:

Nice interplay brought the ball within metres of the try line, and Tupou Taeiloa crashed over on the next phase after a quick recycle. The Otago BHS duo then repeated the trick to create the game’s next score, with Hurley again putting his loose forward in space with an offload and the southern franchise taking an unassailable lead.

The Highlanders Schools fullback is still years away from making a dent at the top level of either cricket or rugby, but his natural ball skills and movement ability are yet another testament to some of the benefits of late specialisation and sampling a wide range of sports during childhood.

Loose threads

In case you missed it on Twitter this week

A pair of impressive individual scores from teenagers Patricia Maliepo and Kiani Tahere in Saturday’s game between Auckland and Bay of Plenty
More clever work from the Bay of Plenty Steamers backline, this time on attack from a scrum platform

Quick hits

Last week’s newsletter referenced a piece on The XV in which former Australian international Nick Phipps discussed how the All Blacks Sevens have historically used a number of “stalwarts” — players like DJ Forbes and Tim Mikkelson with copious short-format experience — to retain the team’s “intellectual property” from series to series and aid the development of younger players being integrated into the squad. New Zealand Rugby’s announcement of a revised format for the upcoming Red Bull Ignite7 tournament took this a step further: contracted All Blacks Sevens and Black Ferns Sevens players will join “more than 60 emerging sevens players” at the camp in Tauranga and participate in the games over the weekend of 5th-6th December. In addition to the beneficial impact this should have on the youngsters selected, NZR High Performance Sevens Manager Tony Philp also feels that it will stretch the elite players who are involved:
The other element of this which is also really exciting is it will grow our leaders as they will have to think about how to build an environment as their team prepares to perform.”
In an interview with Stuff about her second job as NZR’s women’s rugby development co-ordinator for the South Island, Black Ferns scrum-half Kendra Cocksedge identified kicking as a skill she is focused on growing among the young girls at her camps:
“I think in the women’s game and in that secondary schools space we probably don’t kick enough, so if I can them kicking and having fun with it at this age they’ll just naturally take it through.”
Northland Kauri head coach Cheryl Smith and her assistant Susan Dawson were interviewed as part of a World Rugby feature on the utility of the Farah Palmer Cup in the development of women aspiring to coach or manage high-performance teams. Dawson feels that the “growing contingent” of women contributing to the competition off the field will help candidates emerge for jobs higher up the ladder:
“As a pathway, it would be a lot more challenging for a woman to aspire to be a men’s Super [Rugby] or Mitre 10 coach than an FPC coach. However, it’s only useful if the women are given the opportunity to actually grow into those roles through the grades. If the women aren’t developed to high performance, there won’t be women ready to step into these roles as the best applicant for the position.”
On the topic of women coaching in elite sport, Lindsay Gibbs (of Power Plays) this week presented the “damning data behind the lack of Black female head coaches in the WNBA”.
Finally, read Ben Smith’s assessment of South Africa’s “red zone patterns” to get a sense of what to expect from the Springboks with ball in hand in the upcoming Rugby Championship.

The Tip-On