Welcome to this week’s edition of The Tip-On!
If you want to watch former Hurricanes loose forward Victor Vito “doing All Black things” — as Tom Savage of Three Red Kings put it on Twitter — you can find a clip of his superb offload to set up a try for La Rochelle during last weekend’s Champions Cup action here.
If you want to read my latest piece of analysis for The XV, you can find it — an investigation into why teams in Super Rugby Aotearoa are making more metres per carry this year than last — here.
All in-game data per ESPNScrum unless otherwise stated.
Gunslinger
At the start of the Super Rugby Aotearoa season, I wrote an article about Damian McKenzie for The XV.
The premise of that piece was that McKenzie’s game had not been helped by either the improving defences he faced in Super Rugby or the general move in elite men’s rugby towards more structured play, and that the Chiefs might benefit from looking at the way in which the All Blacks used him in 2018 and building their attack in a similar fashion.
With the Chiefs now 5 games into their season, there’s enough data to reflect on the playmaker’s season to date — and how the trends and questions identified in that piece have played out so far.
One of the metrics by which McKenzie’s performance had fallen furthest between his debut in 2015 and 2020 was his offload rate: where at one point he offloaded on almost a fifth of his carries, last year he only managed offloads on around 5% of his carries.
The downward trend in offloads in Kiwi Super Rugby has continued this year — Super Rugby Aotearoa 2021 has seen offloads completed on 7.3% of carries, compared to 7.7% in 2020 — but McKenzie’s performance has improved markedly by this measure.
He has already had 5 offloads on only 50 carries, basically doubling the rate at which he completes them. So what’s led to this change?
Looking at his other performance measures, we can formulate a pretty good guess. This year, McKenzie is being relied on much less as a carrier by the Chiefs, and much more as a distributor:
In effect, it looks as if he’s become more efficient in his attacking output. Rather than burning possessions by carrying down dead ends in the hope of creating something all by himself, he’s running only in situations that suit him: his clean break rate has risen from 5% in Super Rugby Aotearoa 2020 to 10% in Super Rugby Aotearoa 2021, and he’s beating defenders once every 2.6 carries — double his rate (5.2) in last year’s competition.
His running game will also have benefited from one of the most interesting tactical changes the competition has seen this season. Across the board, teams are kicking less from 9 and more from elsewhere in the backline — that is, box kicks make up a lower proportion of kicks this season compared to last — but this trend has been even more pronounced amongst the Chiefs’ opponents. Teams they played in Super Rugby Aotearoa last year kicked 33% of the time through their scrum-halves, but their opposition this year have kicked from 9 only 17% of the time.
Kicks from first receiver rather than scrum-half are generally deeper and less contested, and as such McKenzie will have had more space to operate on kick return — an area where he’s always been dangerous given time on the ball, as he showed in Round 4 against the Hurricanes.
While my piece for The XV identified one possible attacking shape that would suit McKenzie’s running game, Clayton McMillan and the Chiefs have opted for another that allows him to show off his passing range and speed of release.
One of the team’s most common looks in possession this season has been the following: McKenzie (or Kaleb Trask) at first receiver from a ruck in the tramlines, with a pod of 3 forwards directly outside him — the first of whom cuts underneath the receiver on a switch line. In this shape, McKenzie in particular is given the freedom to pick a runner and pull the trigger; examples include the build-up to their second try against the Highlanders last weekend, when he sent Luke Jacobson into a gap with a quick, flat miss ball, and their opening try against the Hurricanes in Wellington (when he did the same for Samisoni Taukei’aho).
He could still be dangerous in that shape that I identified — and the Chiefs arguably still don’t get the most out of his rare attacking talents from set-piece platforms: their only first-phase set-piece tries this season have been from driving mauls — but with their attack having been altered in another fashion he’s been able to display his virtues as a primary distributor.
For the time being, McMillan has opted to keep starting McKenzie at fullback and moving him to first five for the final quarter, but he must be tempted to get his most talented playmaker even more touches by naming him at 10 from the off.
The All Black’s passing game has been that impressive — and it is likely giving Ian Foster food for thought too.
Foreign fields
Last weekend, there were 87 Kiwis playing in top-level competition overseas:
Italy vs. England
- vs. Amy Cokayne (2)
Wales vs. Ireland
- vs. Sene Naoupu (12)
La Rochelle vs. Sale
Uini Atonio (3), Victor Vito (8), Tawera Kerr-Barlow (9), Ihaia West (10) vs. -
Exeter vs. Leinster
- vs. James Lowe (11)
Bordeaux vs. Racing 92
Ben Lam (11), Ben Tameifuna (18) vs. -
Clermont Auvergne vs. Toulouse
Fritz Lee (8), George Moala (13), Tim Nanai-Williams (23) vs. Charlie Faumuina (3), Jerome Kaino (8), Pita Ahki (12), Iosefa Tekori (19)
Bath vs. London Irish
- vs. Blair Cowan (7), Terrence Hepetema (12)
Leicester vs. Newcastle
- vs. Cooper Vuna (23)
Montpellier vs. Benetton
- vs. Toa Halafihi (8), Jayden Hayward (15)
Northampton vs. Ulster
Teimana Harrison (8), Ahsee Tuala (22) vs. Sean Reidy (6), Alby Mathewson (21)
Rebels vs. Force
Stacey Ili (13) vs. Jeremy Thrush (4), Richard Kahui (23)
Reds vs. Brumbies
Taniela Tupou (3) vs. Irae Simone (12), Sosefo Kautai (18), James Tucker (20)
Panasonic Wild Knights vs. Yamaha Jubilo
Craig Millar (1), Hadleigh Parkes (12) vs. Uwe Helu (5), Malo Tuitama (11)
NTT Docomo Red Hurricanes vs. Kobe Kobelco Steelers
TJ Perenara (9), Tom Marshall (15), Marty Banks (22) vs. Brodie Retallick (5), Tom Franklin (6), Hayden Parker (10), Ben Smith (13), Fraser Anderson (14), Aaron Cruden (22)
Ricoh Black Rams vs. Hino Red Dolphins
Jacob Skeen (4), Michael Broadhurst (6), Elliot Dixon (8), Keagan Faria (11), Matt McGahan (15), Daymon Leasuasu (20), Ben Funnell (23) vs. Liaki Moli (4), Augustine Pulu (9), Gillies Kaka (15), Nili Latu (20), Hayden Cripps (22)
Honda Heat vs. Mitsubishi Sagamihara DynaBoars
Shaun Treeby (12), Matt Duffie (15) vs. Jackson Hemopo (6), Heiden Bedwell-Curtis (8), Colin Slade (10), James Wilson (12), Michael Little (13), Roland Alaiasa (23)
Munakata Sanix Blues vs. Toshiba Brave Lupus
Jarred Adams (1), Mark Abbott (5), Dan Pryor (6), Karne Hesketh (23) vs. Jack Stratton (10), Johnny Fa'auli (12), Matt Todd (19)
Toyota Verblitz vs. Kubota Spears
Michael Allardice (5), Kieran Read (8), Jamie Henry (11), Male Sa'u (12), Rob Thompson (13), Charlie Lawrence (23) vs. Ryan Crotty (23)
Suntory Sungoliath vs. NTT Communications Shining Arcs
Tevita Li (11), Beauden Barrett (22) vs. Jimmy Tupou (4), Sekonaia Pole (16)
Canon Eagles vs. NEC Green Rockets
- vs. George Risale (8), Maretino Nemani (12)
Correction: last week’s edition of the newsletter initially omitted Amy Cokayne and Molly Wright — the replacement hookers for England and Scotland respectively in the opening round of the Women’s Six Nations — from the ‘Foreign Fields’ section. An amended version can be found here.
Cokayne’s appearances for Harlequins in the Premier 15s have also been omitted from previous editions; she started at hooker at home to Loughborough on 13th February, at home to Hartpury on 6th March, away to Bristol on 20th March and away to Saracens on 27th March. Elsewhere in the same competition, Wasps scrum-half Sammy Wong was named on the bench in their matches at home to Sale on 27th March and away to Durham on 3rd April. Those editions of the newsletter will also be amended.
Loose threads
In case you missed it on Twitter this week
A look at the underrated handling skills of Hurricanes wing Julian Savea
TJ Perenara getting touches at first receiver for NTT Docomo Red Hurricanes in the Top League
Quick hits
According to an interview with New Zealand Rugby’s Cate Sexton this week, the Black Ferns are still some months away from returning to test rugby. Per reporting by Stuff:
In more positive news, however, today both the Blues and Chiefs announced their squads for the inaugural Super Women’s fixture at Eden Park next month. With Black Ferns coach Glenn Moore now having more time to assemble his squad for the team’s world title defence, a number of uncapped young players will be looking to use this match — and the upcoming Farah Palmer Cup campaign — to press their case for inclusion. On the Blues side, hooker Saphire Abraham, back-row forwards Tenaija Fletcher and Liana Mikaele-Tu'u, fly-half Patricia Maliepo, midfielder Sylvia Brunt and outside back Princess Elliot come to mind; for the Chiefs, look out for Iritana Hohaia (who can cover scrum-half and fullback), second- or back-row forward Mia Anderson and loosehead prop Angel Mulu. Lamentably, according to Chiefs coach Chad Shepherd, “because it’s classified as an exhibition match” none of the players involved will be paid at all — a bare-minimum threshold that, between them, NZR and the franchises can have no excuses for not reaching.
The structure (and existence) of that hypothetical future women’s competition is still up in the air, but the shape of men’s Super Rugby in 2022 became clearer with the announcement that NZR had granted conditional licences to operate to the Moana Pasifika and Fijian Drua franchises. Chief executive Mark Robinson provided a bit more information on those conditions earlier today:
The Fiji Rugby Union’s accompanying press release noted that they still have not finalised the sale of a majority stake in their franchise — a process which they were hoping to conclude by the end of March — but it appears this wasn’t enough of an issue to stop NZR granting the licences with attached conditions at this point in time. That release also noted that the Drua “will play a minimum of five matches in Fiji” per season from next year.
The Japan men’s team — led by Jamie Joseph and current Super Rugby coaches Tony Brown and Scott Hansen — has announced a 52-player training squad for 2021, and a number of uncapped Kiwis have been included: former Highlanders loosehead prop Craig Millar, former Hurricanes lock Mark Abbott and former Blues lock Liaki Moli. According to Japanese rugby expert Rich Freeman, former North Harbour centre Michael Little may have been in the mix too had he not returned to New Zealand during the pandemic last year. The side are currently scheduled to take on the British & Irish Lions in Edinburgh at the end of June.
In Australia, last weekend saw the kick-off of the Shute Shield — Sydney’s premier men’s club competition — and, according to the team lists for Round 1, a number of representative players from New Zealand look to have moved across in search of opportunities. Former New Zealand Schools players Josh Bokser and Carlos Price both started for Southern Districts alongside Brad Armstrong, who played for Southland last year; 2018 NZSS player George Prain started for Western Sydney alongside former NZ U20 lock John Akau'ola-Laula; and 2020 Manawatū lock Sam Liebezeit started for the Hunter Wildfires, with former Crusaders halfback Leon Fukofuka at 9.
The Super Rugby Aotearoa Under 20 competition has now seen 2 of its 3 rounds completed, with the Chiefs’ 49-28 win over the Crusaders making them the only unbeaten side heading into the final day of play. In the second match this Saturday, they will play the Barbarians, who have been on the receiving end of 2 heavy defeats so far: 17-70 against the Highlanders, and 19-50 against the Hurricanes. While a squad that only assembled a couple days before their first game was always bound to struggle, there are a number of talented players in their ranks: Crusaders Academy members Jamie Hannah, George Methven, Jack Parker, Isi Saumaki and Joel Lam headline the group, with Rowan Slater and Elyjah Crosswell another pair of prospects in their first year out of school.
Super Rugby squad member Soane Vikena is one player who stood out for the Blues in their first U20 fixture against the Crusaders at the weekend, and if he continues to go well it may only be a matter of time before Leon MacDonald gives him a shot in the first team. The franchise have got very little attacking output from the hooker position so far this season: their starters in the 2 shirt this year have contributed only 24m on 19 carries, with no clean breaks, defenders beaten or offloads. The figures for other franchises? The Chiefs have had 169m, 3 clean breaks, 4 defenders beaten and 1 offload on 34 carries from their starting hookers; the Crusaders have had 182m-3CB-4DB-1O on 32 carries; the Highlanders have had 30m-1-2-1 on 28 carries; and the Hurricanes have had 154m-4-10-2 on 24 carries.
Ahead of their game in Dunedin last week, Chiefs head coach Clayton McMillan told the press that he is “a big believer in cohesion”. The data on selection in Super Rugby Aotearoa so far this year appears to bear this out: only the Crusaders — whose head coach Scott Robertson has spoken at length about the importance he places on cohesion — have made fewer game-to-game changes to their starting line-up (3.6) than the Chiefs have (4.3).
Former Crusaders assistant Ronan O’Gara has made lots of headlines in recent weeks for the way his La Rochelle team plays. In his regular column for the Irish Examiner last Friday, he gave good insight into a drill he has borrowed from the Christchurch side to improve his own team’s passing and running angles:
If you’re looking for more examples of how the franchise develops their players’ skills, the Instagram account they run for their International Academy is an excellent resource.
Controlling territory and possession was key for the Highlanders in their upset win over the Crusaders a couple of weeks ago, but they were on the wrong side of the turnover count in their recent loss to the Chiefs. Tony Brown’s side conceded 13 turnovers on 133 combined kicks and carries in Round 7, while Clayton McMillan’s visitors gave up only 6 on 129.
For a reported opinion piece in the NZ Herald, Gregor Paul spoke to Hurricanes chief executive Avan Lee about the franchise’s efforts to improve their representation of Māori and Pasifika cultures off the field: