Last dance

Super Rugby Aotearoa: Round 1

Mar 03, 2021

Welcome to this week’s edition of The Tip-On!

If you want to watch Roger Tuivasa-Sheck getting warmed up for his final season of league before joining the Blues, you can see him breaking the line to set up a try for the Warriors in their trial match at the weekend here.

All in-game data per ESPNScrum unless otherwise stated.

Black magic

Even as they have developed into one of the most tactically astute teams in Kiwi rugby, Leon MacDonald’s Blues — with skilful, explosive athletes spread across the field from touchline to touchline — have retained their ability to thrill when they attack with ball in hand.

On Saturday, in a sequence reminiscent of their devastating early strike against the same opponents in Round 1 of Super Rugby Aotearoa last year, Caleb Clarke and Rieko Ioane combined on the left edge to bust the Hurricanes open and kickstart the Auckland franchise’s quest for a 2021 title.

But look back at how both of those breaks were created, and one less heralded figure is crucial: their fly-half Otere Black.

He broke through at the Hurricanes in 2015 at age 20, but — after spending a few years behind Beauden Barrett in the pecking order at 10 — it took a move north to Auckland to properly get his career going at Super Rugby level. (In his first season with the franchise in 2019, he played more minutes — 762 — than the 596 he managed in total for the Hurricanes across their 4 previous campaigns.)

And as the Blues’ standing relative to their competitors has improved markedly over the last 14 months, so has Black’s.

In an effective combination with Barrett last year, Black drove the team around the field with his right boot expertly; on this week’s episode of the Aotearoa Rugby Pod, James Parsons spoke glowingly of his former teammate’s “backfield awareness” and ability to keep the ball in front of his forwards.

However, the playmaking ability that launched Clarke down the left touchline in the opening minutes of Round 1 is becoming increasingly prominent too. He’s always had a knack for playing flat and adroitly getting the ball into the hands of his strike runners — this assist from 2017 is a lovely example of his attacking creativity — but is now one of New Zealand’s most valuable link players.

As the graph below shows, no Kiwi playmaker in Super Rugby has contributed more primary or secondary assists1 per 80 minutes played since the start of last year:

(Black had two primary assists on Saturday: a crossfield kick for Clarke to score on penalty advantage, and a trademark double-pump pass to beat Jordie Barrett on a scrum play and put Stephen Perofeta away.)

The data above also indicates that there is a relatively low level of risk attached to these high returns: while adding substantial attacking value, he also concedes the fewest turnovers per game of the players in this sample2.

In the long term, it will be interesting to see if this combination of playmaking and precise open-play kicking outweighs his relative lack of a running game and draws the attention of Ian Foster and the All Blacks selectors. (Among this group of players, only Jackson Garden-Bachop beats defenders less frequently —once every 8 carries — than Black’s rate of once every 6.)

In the short term, however, the Blues will be more than happy to watch him continue to flourish as their clear first-choice fly-half. Starting the season with an away win over the Hurricanes will give MacDonald hope that they can take their challenge to the Crusaders’ hegemony a couple of steps further this year — and Black could be key to breaking the red-and-blacks’ spell.

Foreign fields

Last weekend, there were 111 Kiwis playing in top-level competition overseas:

Italy vs. Ireland

- vs. Jamison Gibson-Park (9), James Lowe (11)

Wales vs. England

Willis Halaholo (23) vs. -

Bristol vs. Leicester

John Afoa (3), Chris Vui (5), Steven Luatua (6), Jake Heenan (8), Alapati Leiua (12), Charles Piutau (15) vs. -

Newcastle vs. Harlequins

John Hardie (20) vs. Elia Elia (2)

Wasps vs. London Irish

Jeff Toomaga-Allen (3), Brad Shields (6), Jimmy Gopperth (23) vs. Blair Cowan (20), Terrence Hepetema (22)

Gloucester vs. Worcester

Willi Heinz (9) vs. -

Northampton vs. Bath

Matt Proctor (14) vs. -

Benetton vs. Connacht

Jayden Hayward (15) vs. Bundee Aki (12), Dominic Robertson-McCoy (18)

Cardiff vs. Munster

Rey Lee-Lo (12) vs. -

Ulster vs. Ospreys

Sean Reidy (20), Alby Mathewson (21), Matt Faddes (22) vs. Ma’afu Fia (18)

Edinburgh vs. Scarlets

- vs. Sam Lousi (5), Sione Kalamafoni (8), Johnny McNicholl (15)

Zebre vs. Dragons

Potu Leavasa (7), Jimmy Tuivaiti (20) vs. -

Leinster vs. Glasgow

Michael Bent (3) vs. Cole Forbes (11), Aki Seiuli (17), TJ Ioane (20)

Toulon vs. Bayonne

Brian Alainu’uese (5), Tane Takulua (10), Ma’a Nonu (12) vs. Mat Luamanu (6), Joe Ravouvou (14)

Agen vs. Clermont Auvergne

Sam Vaka (13), Dylan Hayes (18) vs. Fritz Lee (8), Joel Everson (18)

La Rochelle vs. Toulouse

Victor Vito (8), Tawera Kerr-Barlow (20), Ihaia West (21) vs. Charlie Faumuina (3), Jerome Kaino (8), Pita Ahki (12)

Reds vs. Rebels

Taniela Tupou (3), Hunter Paisami (13), Suliasi Vunivalu (23) vs. Stacey Ili (13)

Brumbies vs. Waratahs

Jahrome Brown (7), Irae Simone (12) vs. Sam Caird (4), Jack Whetton (5)

Toshiba Brave Lupus vs. Kubota Spears

Matt Todd (7), Jack Stratton (9), Tim Bateman (12), Seta Tamanivalu (13) vs. Sione Vatuvei (20), Ryan Crotty (23)

Munakata Sanix Blues vs. Mitsubishi Sagamihara DynaBoars

Jarred Adams (1), Dan Pryor (8), Lomano Lemeki (14), Dallas Tatana (20), Karne Hesketh (23) vs. Jackson Hemopo (4), Heiden Bedwell-Curtis (8), Nicholas Ealey (9), Colin Slade (10), Tevita Lepolo (11), Matt Vaega (13), Roland Alaiasa (15)

NTT Docomo Red Hurricanes vs. NEC Green Rockets

TJ Perenara (9) vs. Maretino Nemani (12), George Risale (20)

Yamaha Jubilo vs. Ricoh Black Rams

Uwe Helu (8), Malo Tuitama (11) vs. Daymon Leasuasu (5), Jacob Skeen (6), Michael Broadhurst (7), Keagan Faria (11), Matt McGahan (22)

NTT Communications Shining Arcs vs. Toyota Verblitz

Jimmy Tupou (5), Fletcher Smith (10), Sekonaia Pole (16) vs. Michael Allardice (5), Kieran Read (8), Jamie Henry (11), Male Sa’u (12), Rob Thompson (13), Charlie Lawrence (23)

Kobe Kobelco Steelers vs. Canon Eagles

Brodie Retallick (5), Tom Franklin (6), Hayden Parker (10), Tim Lafaele (13), Ben Smith (14), Brodi McCurran (20) vs. Jesse Parete (4)

Honda Heat vs. Suntory Sungoliath

Shaun Treeby (12), Matt Duffie (15) vs. Beauden Barrett (10), Tevita Li (11)

Panasonic Wild Knights vs. Hino Red Dolphins

Hadleigh Parkes (12), Craig Millar (17) vs. Ash Parker (6), Augustine Pulu (9), Hayden Cripps (10), Gillies Kaka (15)

Correction: last week’s edition of the newsletter initially missed out those players with links to New Zealand who appeared in the opening round of Super Rugby AU, as well as 3 players (Nili Latu, Lomano Lemeki and George Risale) who appeared in the first round of the Top League. An amended version can be found here.

Loose threads

In case you missed it on Twitter this week

Analysis of the similarities between a set-piece strike deployed the Crusaders in Dunedin last Friday and a concept used by the All Blacks in 2019
Connor Garden-Bachop showing off on his Highlanders debut
Former Chiefs U18 loose forward Tuki Simpkins with some impressive attacking contributions for Wests Tigers during NRL preseason
TJ Perenara finding space behind the defence for NTT Docomo Red Hurricanes with a clever grubber kick

Quick hits

The biggest news of the week came on Tuesday, with World Rugby announcing the postponement of the 2021 Rugby World Cup for a year. What this means for the Black Ferns in 2021 is unclear — Mark Robinson said that New Zealand Rugby “are really committed to making sure the Black Ferns will have a meaningful campaign, a schedule, this year” — but, looking ahead to 2022, it may allow some of the Black Ferns Sevens players who are keen to cross back over to 15s more time to integrate into the team and build cohesion. None of that, however, salves the intense frustration and disappointment of the country’s top players in the short term.
All Blacks head coach Ian Foster recently appeared on the ‘Talking Performance’ podcast co-hosted by former Chiefs sports psychologist David Galbraith. During an interesting chat about his background and approach to coaching, he also reinforced the national team’s desire to rely less on physicality than their competitors:
“With the All Blacks, we’ve decided — we’re a powerful team, but we’re also a really skilful team, so we want to play a fast, skilful game; we’ve probably gone backwards a little bit in the size component…we actually haven’t got the biggest team in the world — even in our loose forwards, we often play Sam Cane and Ardie Savea together, rather than have a number 8 who’s 117 [or] 118kg like a lot of teams.”
(In another episode worth listening to, Foster’s Wallabies counterpart Dave Rennie was on the same show a week earlier.)
Former All Blacks outside back Charles Piutau — currently causing havoc on a weekly basis for Bristol Bears — looks set to finally complete his switch of international eligibility to Tonga, the country of his parents’ birth, by participating in an Olympic Sevens qualifying tournament. Last month, Piutau spoke to The Guardian’s rugby correspondent Rob Kitson about the possibility of making this path easier for players in the future:
“Whatever it looks like, I think there should be more leeway for guys who are no longer playing for Tier One nations to help out their heritage nations. You want to have competitive and entertaining rugby and I think you’ll get that.”
Tevita Tu'ifua, the coach of the island’s men’s sevens team, also mentioned Tongan-born Malakai Fekitoa as another former All Black who may look to switch his eligibility.
The path to even greater Pasifika influence in Super Rugby from 2022 is becoming more clear, with Fiji Rugby announcing last week that it was seeking private capital to support a franchise which would take the slot it has been offered in next year’s proposed cross-border competition. According to the union’s CEO, John O’Connor, they are looking for an investment of NZ$10m in return for a majority stake in the team — and are trying to finalise any deal by the end of this month.
Also looking to expand are the NRL, and New Zealand Rugby will have been paying close attention to comments made by the league’s CEO Andrew Abdo on Monday:
“An 18th team allows you to think about what we might want to do about expanding in New Zealand. Having two teams in New Zealand creates a tribalism and a new rivalry in New Zealand. It also gives you options around pools because you can have two pools of nine teams. As you see with some of the big US sports, as you grow your competition and the scale of the number of teams, you can create a dynamic around who plays who and ultimately create more rivalries in regional areas and have competitions within competitions…We have a game that is built on tribalism so bringing that colour and atmosphere back to the big rivalry matches is really important for us."
It’s going to be difficult to get the Blues’ 6 jersey off the back of Akira Ioane on the basis of his opening-night performance in Wellington: he beat 3 defenders on 10 powerful carries — many in space on the edge — and made 2 clean breaks. Judging by an interview with Stuff from the weekend, he isn’t keen on giving up his status as the All Blacks’ incumbent starting blindside either:
“From where I started in 2020, to where I ended up was pretty good. But you don’t want to get ahead of yourself. I don’t want to be a two-game wonder. There are a lot of good 6s out there, and we’re all fighting for positions. It’s going to come down to who wants it most.”
Expect to see Luke Jacobson being given plenty of opportunities to carry for the Chiefs in their opener on Friday night. Interim head coach Clayton McMillan has named him at 8 in his first team of the season, and likes what he sees from the former New Zealand U20s captain in that slot:
“I really rate Luke as a No 8. I think he’s got all the skills to really make a great fist of it. He gets his hands on the ball and can have more influence in that position than what he might have at 7 or 6.”
Jacobson himself has expressed an interest in playing at the back of the scrum, telling NZ Rugby World last year:
“I would like to grow my game at 8 and see what I can do there...I don’t know if I’ve got that lineout height for a 6.”
As well as providing an assist in his customary attacking spot in the tramlines, Codie Taylor popped up in the midfield for the Crusaders to collect a neat tip from Sam Whitelock and run in their first try of the season. Earlier this week, the Super Rugby Aotearoa competition’s official Instagram account posted a heat map showing where on the pitch he made his contributions in the game; while this version lacks some necessary information, it’s a concept that’s potentially very informative — and it’s promising to see some more complex data entering the mainstream, even if its initial presentation is flawed.
Just a day after the announcement of Aaron Smith resigning with the Highlanders had generated a lot of noise about Folau Fakatava’s future, Tony Brown announced that his second-choice halfback would make his first Super Rugby start in Hamilton on Friday. Whether it’s in his interests to stay with the franchise beyond this season is certainly open to question, but Brown appears to be keeping the promise of more game-time he’s made to Fakatava — and his impact off the bench in Round 1 was tangible. In 23 minutes of action, he beat 2 defenders and completed 2 offloads on 6 carries — compared to Smith’s return of 4 carries in 57 minutes, with no offloads or defenders beaten.
Ardie Savea almost single-handedly kept the Hurricanes in the game against the Blues with a number of crucial jackal turnovers close to his team’s line in the first half. Now into the prime of his career, it’s interesting to reflect on how he has developed as a player since he debuted for the All Blacks back in 2016. In this highlights package of his rookie year put together for the team’s official YouTube channel, many of the familiar facets of his game are there — including those breakdown steals — but it’s noticeable that, with a lighter frame, he was not always able to dominate collisions in the way that he now does consistently.

‘Primary assist’ = the pass or kick immediately preceding a try being scored; ‘secondary assist’ = the pass or kick immediately before that

Otere Black, Stephen Perofeta, Beauden Barrett, Damian McKenzie, Aaron Cruden, Richie Mo’unga, David Havili, Mitchell Hunt, Josh Ioane, Jackson Garden-Bachop and Jordie Barrett