Welcome to this week’s edition of The Tip-On!
If — after a week in which his “hunger and desire” have been (likely unfairly) questioned by the Irish media, as well as his tackle technique — you want a reminder of what James Lowe does best, you can see some highlights of him having fun in his final season of Super Rugby here.
If you want to read my first piece of analysis for The XV, you can find it — an in-depth look at Damian McKenzie’s game — here.
All in-game data per ESPNScrum unless otherwise stated.
Slow and steady
With six matches played in Super Rugby Aotearoa 2021, we now have enough match data to begin to look at how the competition is developing on the field.
It’s worth noting at the outset that things appear slightly less balanced than last year: following on from a 2020 season in which 9 of 19 games were decided by fewer than 7 points and the median winning margin was 10 points, the closest match to date has been the Crusaders’ 13-point victory over the Highlanders in Dunedin.
To no one’s surprise, the Crusaders are unbeaten in their first 3 games, with an average margin of +17.3 points per 80 minutes — about a converted try ahead of their 2020 mark of +10.1.
The Blues, their closest challengers last year, also look to be stronger: they have won both their games so far by an average margin of 18.5 points, after posting a record of +3.9 points per 80 minutes in 2020. (Both of their wins so far in 2021 — +15 away to the Hurricanes, and +22 at home to the Highlanders — eclipse their best single-game performance last season: a 12-point win away to the Chiefs.)
While it’s still early in the competition, it therefore doesn’t seem too soon to state that this weekend’s fixture between the sides at Eden Park will see the 2 major contenders for the title face off — with the other 3 franchises already playing catch-up.
It will also see the 2 best forward packs at the scrum and lineout go head to head.
The Blues’ offseason recruitment work strengthened their pack significantly, and the impact of that increased depth has been immediate. Their opponents’ front-rowers have conceded 9 penalties in total across 2 games, and they have been relentless in using the scrum not just as a platform but an attacking weapon: they have averaged 8 completed attacking scrums a game — the most of any team — and are the only team who haven’t yet lost the ball on their own put-in. They’ve also been content to drive the ball drive frequently from their lineouts, setting 15 attacking mauls on the 25 lineouts they have won in their first 2 fixtures.
The Crusaders, meanwhile, didn’t do much recruiting — replacement tighthead prop Fletcher Newell is the only new forward to get minutes so far this season — but forwards coach Jason Ryan has kept his “Rolls-Royce pack” purring. They too have used their scrum as a weapon: they have averaged 7.7 completed attacking scrums per game, and opposing front-rowers have conceded 14 penalties in total in 3 games. Their maul defence has also been a prominent feature of their game, in particular in their Round 1 win over the Highlanders in Dunedin when they repeatedly rebuffed the home side’s advances.
But it’s not just the 2 leading sides in the competition that are putting more of an emphasis on scrum and lineout strength; the balance between phase play and set-piece play has shifted across the board in 2021. The average game in last year’s competition saw 233.5 carries and 36.4 combined scrums and lineouts; so far this year, there have been an average of 40.7 combined scrums and lineouts per game, but only 191.2 carries.
This change in the balance of games has had a knock-on effect on how teams construct their scores. Tries per game are up from 5.9 to 6.7 — again, likely a result of fixtures that are less evenly matched — with a considerable proportion of that increase attributable to tries scored directly (i.e. on the first phase after) a scrum or lineout:
Getting your attack right from set-piece platforms has probably never been more important in top-level Kiwi rugby: all in all, 19 of the 40 tries scored so far this year have come within 3 phases of a scrum or lineout — many on pre-planned multiphase sequences.
And, looking ahead to this weekend, those multiphase sequences might well be crucial to the outcome of Sunday’s top-of-the-table clash. Rather than turning up against forward packs that they can dominate physically and technically, both the Blues and Crusaders will likely expect parity at the scrum and lineout — and, for the first time this season, have to tailor their gameplans accordingly.
Foreign fields
Last weekend, there were 88 Kiwis playing in top-level competition overseas:
Italy vs. Wales
- vs. Willis Halaholo (23)
Scotland vs. Ireland
Sean Maitland (14), Simon Berghan (18) vs. Jamison Gibson-Park (9), James Lowe (11)
Bristol vs. Wasps
Steven Luatua (6), Nathan Hughes (8), Charles Piutau (15), John Afoa (18), Chris Vui (19), Jake Heenan (20) vs. Jeff Toomaga-Allen (3), Brad Shields (6), Jimmy Gopperth (12), Malakai Fekitoa (13)
Newcastle vs. Bath
John Hardie (20), Cooper Vuna (23) vs. -
Northampton vs. Sale
Teimana Harrison (8) vs. -
Gloucester vs. Leicester
Willi Heinz (9) vs. -
London Irish vs. Worcester
Blair Cowan (7) vs. -
Zebre vs. Leinster
Potu Leavasa (7), Josh Renton (9) vs. Michael Bent (18)
Glasgow vs. Ospreys
Aki Seiuli (1), Nick Grigg (13), TJ Ioane (20) vs. Ma'afu Fia (3)
Munster vs. Scarlets
- vs. Sam Lousi (5), Sione Kalamafoni (8), Johnny McNicholl (15)
Connacht vs. Edinburgh
Abraham Papali'i (19) vs. Angus Williams (18)
Dragons vs. Ulster
- vs. Sean Reidy (7), Alby Mathewson (9)
Benetton vs. Cardiff
Jayden Hayward (15) vs. Rey Lee-Lo (12)
Bayonne vs. Agen
Michael Ruru (9), Mat Luamanu (18) vs. Sam Vaka (12), Jordan Puletua (13), Dylan Hayes (18)
Force vs. Rebels
Jeremy Thrush (4), Toni Pulu (11), Richard Kahui (12) vs. Stacey Ili (13)
Brumbies vs. Reds
Irae Simone (12), Jahrome Brown (20) vs. Taniela Tupou (3), Hunter Paisami (12), Suliasi Vunivalu (13)
Munakata Sanix Blues vs. Toyota Verblitz
Dan Pryor (8), Jason Emery (10), Jarred Adams (17) vs. Kieran Read (8), Tiaan Falcon (10), Jamie Henry (11), Male Sa'u (12), Rob Thompson (13), Charlie Lawrence (15)
Kubota Spears vs. Honda Heat
Sione Vatuvei (8), Ryan Crotty (23) vs. Shaun Treeby (12), Matt Duffie (15)
NTT Docomo Red Hurricanes vs. Panasonic Wild Knights
TJ Perenara (9) vs. Hadleigh Parkes (12)
Yamaha Jubilo vs. Canon Eagles
Uwe Helu (5), Malo Tuitama (11) vs. -
Mitsubishi Sagamihara DynaBoars vs. NTT Communications Shining Arcs
Jackson Hemopo (6), Heiden Bedwell-Curtis (8), Nicholas Ealey (9), Colin Slade (10), Michael Little (12), Matt Vaega (13) vs. Jimmy Tupou (5), Sekonaia Pole (16)
Ricoh Black Rams vs. Kobe Kobelco Steelers
Daymon Leasuasu (5), Jacob Skeen (6), Michael Broadhurst (7), Ben Funnell (8), Keagan Faria (14), Matt McGahan (15) vs. Brodie Retallick (5), Tom Franklin (6), Hayden Parker (10), Richard Buckman (12), Tim Lafaele (13), Ben Smith (14), Brodi McCurran (20)
Loose threads
In case you missed it on Twitter this week
Some superb work off the ball by Rieko Ioane to dot down one of the best disallowed tries you’ll see all year
Quick hits
World Rugby’s announcement of a new annual global women’s 15s competition — to be known as WXV, and played in September and October from 2023 onwards — is positive news for the sport across the world. Particularly relevant to the Black Ferns, however, will be the establishment of a qualifying tournament between New Zealand, Australia, Canada and the USA (referred to as ‘Oceania/Rugby Americas North’), which will be played in the first half of each year. The results of this tournament will determine which tier of the WXV competition each nation plays in, and — more importantly – guarantees teams more regular fixtures against other top opponents. If that qualifying tournament is played (like the WXV fixtures themselves) in a single location, Kiwi fans should have another opportunity to see their elite team play against countries other than Australia on home soil soon after next year’s World Cup. (Both of the Ferns’ 2 games in New Zealand since the 2017 edition have been against the Wallaroos.)
Meanwhile, the All Blacks’ test programme for 2021 still hangs in the balance — but the NZ Herald is reporting that both a July series and a Rugby Championship competition that looks more like normal are possible:
According to Gregor Paul, “confidence is relatively high” that the Covid-19 vaccine will have been rolled out widely enough to allow traditional end-of-year-tour fixtures to take place too.
However, it’s looking increasingly like that roll-out won’t come quickly enough for Super Rugby Trans-Tasman. According to reporting by Tom Decent for the Sydney Morning Herald, “[q]uarantine provisions are proving a real headache” — and Rugby Australia and New Zealand Rugby are expected to decide by the end of March whether or not the series of fixtures can go ahead.
Those who watched the post-match coverage from Christchurch at the weekend will have heard Crusaders wing Leicester Fainga'anuku mention that he was planning to watch the Penrith Panthers play in the opening round of the NRL on his return to the changing rooms. In an interview with Tom Vinicombe of The XV this week, he explained how rugby league was his first love, how close he came to signing on with the Sydney Roosters at 15 and how his father persuaded him to stay with Tasman instead:
Pro14 side Ulster announced the addition of another Kiwi to their coaching staff this week, with former All Black flanker Craig Newby set to join next season as Skills Coach. He will replace Dan Soper, who is stepping up to Assistant Coach. Both Soper and Newby were involved with Dunedin RFC’s Premier side in the mid-2000s; also in that team was prop Bronson Ross, who went on to play a number of games for Ulster between 2013 and 2016 — and played a key role in bringing current Highlanders lock Jack Regan, formerly of the Irish province’s academy, to New Zealand last year.
The Blues’ newest second-row recruit, Sam Darry, gave an assured performance in his Super Rugby debut at Eden Park on Sunday, but he will face a much sterner test if he’s selected to face the Crusaders this weekend. The franchise that developed him reacted rather negatively to his departure last year, but based on an interview with Marc Hinton of Stuff Darry appears to be at peace with his decision to leave Christchurch for Auckland:
The Chiefs defended resolutely for long periods of their 39-17 defeat to the Crusaders last weekend, but the home side’s dominance of possession ultimately told in the second half. An indication of the Chiefs’ inability to keep the ball themselves was the fact that right wing Shaun Stevenson — who contributed 10 completed tackles to their defensive effort — didn’t register a single attacking touch in 80 minutes played.
After noting that it was worth keeping an eye on Richie Mo'unga’s carrying statistics in last week’s newsletter, it appears that Crusaders fans needn’t have worried about an undisclosed knee issue affecting his ability with ball in hand: on Saturday, he beat 11 defenders on 11 carries and made 3 clean breaks.
The Highlanders — who have a number of Magpies in their current squad in Namatahi Waa, Ash Dixon, Bryn Evans, Marino Mikaele-Tu'u, Folau Fakatava and Caleb Makene — have deepened their connection with Hawke’s Bay by bringing the province’s Mitre 10 Cup coach Mark Ozich on board to coach their U20 side. Ozich is a highly-regarded coach whose less conventional path into the professional game stands out, and Stuff’s Paul Cully reckons that this role “hints at a longer-term position with the club”. That may not be an immediate step into the head coach role, however, with Cully also reporting that the franchise are grooming current forwards coach Clarke Dermody to take over the top job when Tony Brown departs in 2023 to focus on building to the World Cup with Japan.
The Hurricanes are the second franchise to name their U20 squad for next month’s tournament in Taupō. Of those selected, Manawatū hooker Ben Strang and Wellington first five Aidan Morgan were both involved in the senior squad’s preseason — with Morgan a possibility at 10 in Round 4 of Super Rugby Aotearoa this weekend, as a consequence of the team’s injury issues at the position. (A third U20-eligible player — Manawatū blindside TK Howden, who has already played Mitre 10 Cup rugby — was also involved in preseason, but hasn’t been named in the franchise’s U20 squad; Ruben Love, who is already on a full Super Rugby contract, is also absent.) ClubRugby.nz has provided an excellent breakdown of the other players named.