Welcome to this week’s edition of The Tip-On!
If you want to find out more about the two charities for whom the Possibles and Probables sides will be raising money on Saturday — the UpsideDowns Education Trust and the Graeme Dingle Foundation — you can watch a short video produced by All Blacks TV here.
All in-game data per ESPNScrum unless otherwise stated.
Bread and butter
After intermittently showing their ability to thrive in broken play across Bledisloe I and II, the All Blacks went back to basics in Sydney and expertly controlled a wet-weather encounter with their kicking game.
Their record 43-5 victory also provided the best examples so far of the way in which Ian Foster’s new coaching team have revamped the team’s attack from set piece — with promising results at this early stage.
With John Plumtree looking after the lineout, Greg Feek the scrum and Brad Mooar the general attack, New Zealand have generated a better return from these attacking platforms over their first 3 games of the year than they have managed in recent seasons:
In addition to their 4 phase-1 tries from scrum or lineout, they’ve scored 2 more on the second phase after a set piece.
This average of 2 tries per game within 2 phases of such a platform is 4 times higher than their 2019 average, when they scored 2 first-phase and 2 second-phase tries from scrum or lineout in total across 8 Tier 1 games.
One of the keys to this higher strike rate has been the team’s renewed focus on the maul as an attacking platform. 3 of the phase-1 set-piece tries have come straight from a lineout maul — Aaron Smith’s in Bledisloe I, Richie Mo’unga’s in Bledisloe III and Dane Coles’ in Bledisloe III — and 1 of the phase-2 tries followed such a set-up; Karl Tu’inukuafe crashed over to open the scoring in Sydney after a maul on the preceding phase.
There are a number of reasons why — in addition to being a weapon itself, via the direct drive to the line — the platform is so effective as a base from which to launch attacking play. Initiated effectively, the set-up ties up a large number of defenders in a small space, and gives the attacking team much more control over when and how the ball is released; from a typical ‘off-the-top’ lineout, a defensive line is able to time its advance forward more reliably and cut down their opponents’ time on the ball.
The All Blacks have also clearly focused on driving the ball at an angle infield on their mauls, opening up both sides of the set piece to attack with their multitude of strike runners. (In Bledisloe III, this also enabled them to target inexperienced defenders being hidden by the Wallabies in unfamiliar spots.)
This desire to set up mauls regularly from their attacking lineouts has been evident not just in scoring position, but as an effective means of controlling the ball all over the field. As a result, Foster’s All Blacks are using the platform much more frequently than they did at any point during the last World Cup cycle:
This subtle but important shift of emphasis in their attack should have a positive impact on their performances against European teams, against whom the dangerous transition situations in which they thrive are much less frequent.
After a rusty start in the Wellington rain, Foster and his new assistants are starting to clearly put their stamp on the All Blacks’ game.
Last-ditch
Canterbury left it as late as possible to secure their 4th consecutive Farah Palmer Cup title at the weekend, with lock Cindy Nelles crashing over from close range to score the clinching try after the clock went into the red.
The home side had numerous opportunities to cross the line early in the game — they spent over 7 minutes inside Waikato’s 22m line in the first-half alone — but came away empty-handed. Wing Sam Curtis dropped the ball metres out with a clear run to the line at the end of one sequence, before grounding it just short on another; in between, midfielder Grace Brooker also lost the ball over the try line.
Waikato’s defensive effort was staunch throughout, with Black Ferns flanker Kennedy Simon particularly physical in contact and sevens specialist Tenika Willison winning a couple of vital jackal turnovers from the fly-half position.
However, the red and blacks just kept knocking on the door, and the variety and skill of their attack eventually told. They used their kicking game cleverly from set-piece platforms in the second half, finding space behind the line with grubbers on first phase from Kendra Cocksedge at 9 and Olivia McGoverne at 12.
It was then Cocksedge who made the decision at a late penalty to tap and go, with her wide pass to Brooker creating a line break and putting the team in position to land the final blow a minute later.
Further afield
In a previous edition of The Tip-On, we looked at the high proportion of the Black Ferns contracted squad that had begun their careers in the country’s traditional centres of power: of the 31 players selected for 2020, 24 (or 77.4%) made their first provincial appearance for Auckland, Canterbury, Otago, Waikato or Wellington.
However, the Possibles v Probables fixture has given head coach Glenn Moore an opportunity to bring a wider pool of talent together for a week’s training in Auckland: of the 60 players involved in the trial match, only 42 of them — equivalent to 70% — began their careers at a ‘Big Five’ province.
(52 players were initially selected, with a further 7 specifically ruled out due to injury; when the matchday squads were announced yesterday, Olivia Ward-Duin was named in place of Katie Mata’u for the Possibles.)
The Manawatū Cyclones were resurgent in this year’s FPC, reaching the semi-finals out of the South Pool, and their system is the best represented of the smaller provinces’ in the Possibles v Probables ranks.
Selica Winiata, who has represented Manawatū since 2007, starts at fullback for the Probables on Saturday, and the Cyclones’ young stars Carys Dallinger and Kaipo Olsen-Baker will be on opposing benches; the Possibles’ replacement loosehead Krystal Murray also began her provincial career in the province, while Lauren Balsillie — who played for the Black Ferns Development XV last year — was ruled out because of an injury.
Cyclones outside back Janna Vaughan will also start in the Probables’ 11 shirt, but the capped Black Fern — who has recently spent time playing professional sevens in Japan — started her provincial career with Otago.
Friends in high places
Former Rugby Australia executive Raelene Castle’s appointment as CEO of Sport NZ should provide Mark Robinson with a strong ally in the administrative sphere.
Castle gave him a strong endorsement upon his own ascent to the NZR Chief Executive role, and the Kiwi union reciprocated with words of praise after her decision to resign from RA was announced.
The continuation of the development of the high-performance structures which feed into the Black Ferns is one issue on which Robinson should receive considerable support. While taking pains to stress that she did not see herself as a single-issue administrator, Castle made clear in an interview with Suzanne McFadden of LockerRoom that the elite levels of women’s team sports were one of the areas on which she would focus during her tenure:
Pass of the week
In his first start in the All Blacks’ 8 jersey last Saturday, Hoskins Sotutu displayed a number of the skills that make him a compelling option as the long-term successor to Kieran Read at the position.
As well as using the natural handling skill that has been evident since his time as an age-grade player to make a couple of deft tip-on passes in phase play, he also contributed well at set piece.
His 4 lineouts won on New Zealand’s own ball matched the individual totals of starting second rows Sam Whitelock and Patrick Tuipulotu, and he showed great awareness and control at the base of the scrum to send Rieko Ioane over in the right-hand corner for a slick score late in the second half.
As soon as the All Blacks pack engages on the Wallabies’ 5m line, Sotutu immediately shifts from the conventional number-8 slot to bind between his openside flanker and loosehead lock. This enables him to pick up Codie Taylor’s channel-1 strike before the Australian back row has even started thinking about defending New Zealand’s first-phase attack; before Ned Hanigan knows it, the Blues loose forward is attacking the 10m of space on the short side at pace.
With Marika Koroibete the only backline defender on that side of the set piece, Sotutu can focus solely on committing the winger to a tackle attempt. Carrying the ball in two hands, he is able to release a pass to Ioane — who is coming into the line from depth — as soon as Koroibete turns his shoulders inward:
It’s a one-pace walk-in for the world-class finisher, who unapologetically touches down in his trademark one-handed style.
Quick hits
Black Ferns Sevens coaches Allan Bunting and Cory Sweeney announced on Tuesday the 52 players they have selected for the Red Bull Ignite7 tournament at the beginning of December. In addition to NZR’s fully-contracted sevens players and a number of stand-outs from the Farah Palmer Cup are some less familiar faces: Otago’s Maia Joseph (daughter of Jamie) is still at school at Columba College; Jorja Miller — also still at school — starred in last year’s World School Sevens competition; and Teuila Sotutu (sister of Hoskins and daughter of Waisake) is balancing her rugby with preparations for next year’s Netball World Youth Cup as part of the New Zealand U21 side.
Canadian international Cindy Nelles has been one of Canterbury’s top performers all season in the FPC, and after dotting down the winning score in Saturday’s final gave an interesting account of her thoughts in the game’s final minutes to Phillip Rollo of Stuff:
Gain Line Analytics co-founder (and former Wallaby prop) Ben Darwin hinted on Twitter after Bledisloe III that the All Blacks’ team cohesion is still sub-optimal by his company’s metrics, describing Saturday’s lineup — in response to a description of Australia as a “team of boys” — as “themselves a hodge[-]podge of young guys”.
The NBA’s Philadelphia 76ers have been one of the most interesting professional sports franchises to follow over the last decade, and The Athletic’s Derek Bodner has a good piece up on their latest move: the appointment of former Houston Rockets executive Daryl Morey as their President of Basketball Operations.
Finally, be sure to read Sky Sport commentators Vania Wolfgramm, Taylor Curtis and Taylah Hodson-Tomokino break down their highlights of the FPC with Ashley Stanley of LockerRoom: