Welcome to this week’s edition of The Tip-On!
If you want some evidence of the entirely unsurprising fact that Hoskins Sotutu is multi-talented, you can watch a clip of him messing around with a football at the Blues’ captain’s run last Saturday here.
All in-game data per ESPNScrum unless otherwise stated.
Keeping it together
When you consider the concept of ‘consistency of selection’, it’s easy to slip into binary thinking: a team’s starting line-up, after all, has either changed or stayed the same.
However, analysis of the selection approaches of the 5 Kiwi Super Rugby franchises shows that the idea requires more nuance. Since the start of 2020, each team has played either 16 or 17 games of Super Rugby and Super Rugby Aotearoa — and over that period each team has named at least 15 unique starting line-ups.
An unchanged side has been selected only 3 times in the last 15 months: once by the Blues (their third Super Rugby Aotearoa fixture last year), once by the Crusaders (their second Super Rugby Aotearoa fixture last year) and once by the Highlanders (their final Super Rugby Aotearoa fixture last year).
In order to get a sense of how much on-field continuity the clubs have been able to build during the current World Cup cycle, it is therefore necessary to look not just at whether anything changes on a week-to-week basis but at how much changes.
Analysis of line-up data over this period shows that there hasn’t been much variation in approach across the 5 teams, with each averaging around 5 changes to the starting line-up per game — and using between 34 and 40 individual players in their starting line-ups:
With the Chiefs averaging the most game-to-game changes and using the most players overall, it might be tempting to point to their selection strategy as a reason for their recent failings. The picture, however isn’t quite that simple.
During the 2020 Super Rugby Aotearoa campaign that saw them lose 8 games in a row, Warren Gatland actually remained fairly consistent in his team selections: the Chiefs averaged 3.3 changes from week to week, and never made more than 5.
(Gatland was far more disruptive during the pre-Covid Super Rugby competition last year: after beating the Crusaders in their second game, the Chiefs made 8, 9 and 10 changes to their starting team in 3 consecutive weeks — beating the Sunwolves and Waratahs handily, but losing heavily to the Brumbies at home in between.)
But it wasn’t just the Chiefs who were more consistent in Super Rugby Aotearoa last year: all 5 teams’ averages for that run of games were lower than their overall averages, ranging from a mark of 2.7 changes per game (the Highlanders) to 4.3 (the Hurricanes).
That’s likely due to the fact that Super Rugby coaches had a clear idea of the shape of the rest of their season when Super Rugby Aotearoa kicked off last June; they knew that they would not be playing more than 8 times in what remained of 2020, and were able to keep the same players on the field for one intense stretch of games.
The picture is slightly different in 2021, with more than 8 matches on the horizon — and teams unsure whether they’ll be playing against their Australian counterparts in May, or participating in another round of domestic games.
And, while it’s impossible to assessthe psychological impact that this uncertainty is having on the players themselves, it seems clear that it has changed the selection approach of coaches: where they made 3.4 week-to-week changes to the starting line-up in Super Rugby Aotearoa 2020, they are averaging 5.0 per game so far in 2021.
Foreign fields
Last weekend, there were 55 Kiwis playing in top-level competition overseas:
Scotland vs. Italy
Sean Maitland (15), Simon Berghan (18) vs. -
Ireland vs. England
Bundee Aki (12), Jamison Gibson-Park (21) vs. -
France vs. Wales
Uini Atonio (18) vs. Willis Halaholo (23)
Newcastle vs. Wasps
- vs. Jeff Toomaga-Allen (3), Brad Shields (6), Jimmy Gopperth (10), Malakai Fekitoa (13)
Northampton vs. Bristol
Teimana Harrison (8), Matt Proctor (14) vs. John Afoa (3), Chris Vui (5), Steven Luatua (6), Nathan Hughes (8), Alapati Leiua (12)
Sale vs. London Irish
- vs. Blair Cowan (20)
Bristol vs. Harlequins
- vs. Amy Cokayne (2)
Munster vs. Benetton
Rhys Marshall (16) vs. Jayden Hayward (15)
Leinster vs. Ospreys
Michael Bent (3) vs. Ma'afu Fia (3)
Ulster vs. Zebre
Sean Reidy (6) vs. Potu Leavasa (8), Josh Renton (9), Charles Alaimalo (20)
Dragons vs. Glasgow
- vs. Aki Seiuli (1), Nick Grigg (13)
Cardiff vs. Edinburgh
Rey Lee-Lo (13) vs. Angus Williams (18)
Scarlets vs. Connacht
Sam Lousi (5), Sione Kalamafoni (8) vs. Dominic Robertson-McCoy (3), Abraham Papali'i (8)
Rebels vs. Waratahs
Stacey Ili (13) vs. Sam Caird (5)
Reds vs. Force
Taniela Tupou (3), Hunter Paisami (12), Suliasi Vunivalu (14) vs. Jeremy Thrush (4), Richard Kahui (11)
Toshiba Brave Lupus vs. Suntory Sungoliath
Matt Todd (7), Jack Stratton (10), Johnny Fa'auli (12), Seta Tamanivalu (13) vs. Beauden Barrett (10), Tevita Li (11)
NEC Green Rockets vs. Hino Red Dolphins
George Risale (8), Maretino Nemani (12) vs. Liaki Moli (4), Ash Parker (6), Nili Latu (8), Augustine Pulu (9), Hayden Cripps (10)
Correction: last week’s edition of the newsletter initially omitted Teimana Harrison — the Northampton back-rower who started in their win over Sale — from the ‘Foreign Fields’ section. An amended version can be found here.
Quick hits
After last week’s news about World Rugby’s planned restructure of the women's international game, Cate Sexton — New Zealand Rugby’s Head of Women’s Rugby — told RNZ that the new format (which should mean more test matches each year) may necessitate a change in how the union approaches the contracting of Black Ferns players:
Italy’s men’s team — who are scheduled to tour New Zealand later this year — finished off the 2021 Six Nations with their heaviest defeat of the competition, falling 52-10 to Scotland in Edinburgh. If the mid-year series against the All Blacks does go ahead, Ian Foster’s side — who have historically been miles better than any other international team when it comes to creating with ball in hand — shouldn’t face too stern a defensive test: the Azzurri have allowed opponents to make clean breaks on 10% of their carries in this year’s tournament. (For reference, the Six Nations teams that have completed their 2021 campaigns have made clean breaks on 6% of their own carries on average.)
One player who will be relishing another chance to run out in black is Richie Mo'unga — and his imperious display in Auckland at the weekend has prompted another round of discussion about his perceived inability to translate his Super Rugby performances to test level. While it’s reassuring to think that a player in a position of such influence can bend the flow of on-field action to their will, such a notion is facile in a sport as complex and contingent as rugby — and it’s often more instructive to look at how the context around a player changes as they move from the club to the international game than to simply infer that different outcomes are a result of an individual’s own lack of consistency or application. Mo'unga hasn’t been “up and down” during his All Blacks career to date so much as the All Blacks as a unit have been up and down — and perceptions will continue to fluctuate until the team settles on a clear tactical approach and a consistent selection strategy in the way that the Crusaders have in recent years.
As part of the official launch of their new Super Rugby Aotearoa Under 20 competition, NZR announced that former Chiefs assistant Tabai Matson will be the new head coach of the New Zealand U20 team. Current Otago head coach Tom Donnelly and Hurricanes defence coach Cory Jane will be his assistants, with the possibility of an Oceania U20 Rugby Championship on the horizon if a Trans-Tasman Bubble can be implemented effectively.
Also slipped in at the end of that media release was the fact that the Jock Hobbs Memorial National Under 19 tournament won’t take place in 2021. NZR appears to be trying to restructure its talent identification and development systems to avoid overlap between provinces and Super Rugby franchises — but there is a risk that making its high-performance pipeline too narrow might eliminate one of the major benefits of the way it is structured.
While the Blues couldn’t finish on top against the Crusaders at Eden Park on Sunday, midfielder Rieko Ioane produced another impactful performance with ball in hand — as well as a couple of crucial defensive interventions. Throughout his Super Rugby career to date, his efforts against the 10-time champions have been stellar: he has made breaks as often in his 7 games against the Crusaders (once every 5.4 carries) as in his 55 games against all other opponents (once every 5.3), and beaten defenders in red and black (once every 2.0 carries) more frequently than others (3.2). What Scott Robertson’s side have done well is control how often he can release the ball out of contact; he has offloaded on only 5.1% of his carries against the Crusaders, compared to 9.6% against the Blues’ other opponents. His performance last weekend was largely in line with these trends: while he couldn’t complete an offload on his 14 carries, his footwork — which helped him beat 5 defenders and make 1 clean break — caused the Crusaders problems.
Luke Jacobson has been ever-present for the Chiefs so far this year, and contributed 2 turnovers won from number 8 in their win over the Hurricanes in Wellington at the weekend. He has now won 1.0 turnovers per 80 minutes so far in Super Rugby Aotearoa 2021 — a mark that ranks third among back-rowers with more than 160 minutes played, behind only Ardie Savea and Du’Plessis Kirifi. (In that group of players, he is also one of the least frequently penalised: he has only conceded 1 penalty in 240 minutes to date.) When Lachlan Boshier returns from injury, combining the ace fetcher with Jacobson and Sam Cane in a loose-forward trio could cause opponents significant problems at the breakdown; crucially, however, it also shouldn’t mean that they have to compromise at set piece. Jacobson — as well as frequently carrying in midfield on first-phase possession — has caught 4 lineouts himself this season; the 1.91m-tall Boshier, meanwhile, won 3.3 lineouts per 80 minutes for the Chiefs in 2020.
George Bridge returned from injury for the Crusaders Development XV on Sunday, but could have a hard time breaking immediately back into Scott Robertson’s first-choice team. Leicester Fainga'anuku in particular has benefited from the All Black’s absence, looking strong on the ball (with 6 clean breaks and 17 defenders beaten on 40 carries) and in the air in his 4 starts in the 11 shirt so far this season.
After announcing the retention of Folau Fakatava through to 2023 last week, the Highlanders have also been able to extend the contact of Pari Pari Parkinson for another season; the lock hasn’t yet appeared for the franchise this season due to injury, but is back in the side for this week’s game at home against the Hurricanes. The reason for his recent absence, however, may give the Highlanders a slight concern: he had surgery over the offseason to address a problem with his left foot and and ankle which, according to assistant coach Clarke Dermody, “had dogged him for years”. The dimensions at which Parkinson is listed in the press release announcing his new contract (2.04m and 130kg) aren’t far off those of an NBA big man — and players in that category have historically appeared to struggle more with injury (and foot injuries in particular) than smaller basketball players.
The Hurricanes are probably the most innovative of the 5 Kiwi franchises in the range of attacking shapes they use in phase play, with a particular focus on putting forwards in position to make decisions on the edge with ball in hand. Evan Kavanagh of EK Rugby Analysis has put together some brief analysis of a couple of good examples of this from last weekend’s action, which you can find here.